Finally, a CBO proposal you can support...

Don't look for the mainstream media to report this CBO deficit report that suggests downsizing the Federal Government...

Forcing agencies to make only one new hire for every three workers leaving and trimming the federal workforce by 10 percent is just one of the new cost- cutting suggestions from the Congressional Budget Office.
In its latest report, CBO has outlined a series of deficit reducing changes for federal employees that could save $100 billion over the next decade.
Retirement benefits for federal employees are also on the table. The CBO report suggests an alternative pension benefit calculation for both civilian and military retirees.
Under the current system, a civilian retiree's annuity is based on the average of the three highest consecutive years of earnings, while the military considers a retiree's annuity based on the average of his or her 36 months of highest earnings.
If CBO's proposal was implemented, civilian retirement would be based on a five- year average instead, and military retirees would have their annuities based on a 60-month highest earning average. The change, if carried out, would have a 10- year savings of $3.1 billion, according to the report.

CBO: Obamacare will never reduce number of uninsured below 29 million...

This table in the April CBO Obamacare update shows the number of uninsured will remain about 30 million for the next 10 years. Please tell me again why we turned out healthcare system upside down and raised rates and taxes.


Pdf screen capture via CBO:

CBO Chief says Obamacare will lower wages too...

Congressional Budget Office (CBO) Director Douglas Elmendorf:

“We expect as other analysts believe that over time costs that employers bare for their employees end up being borne by the employee in the form of lower wages.”

Gang of Eight Fail: CBO finds their bill will only reduce illegal immigration by 25%

25%? That's just a drop in the bucket. 

Via NRO:

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has released its analysis of the economic impact of the Gang of Eight’s immigration-reform proposal. Proponents are likely to emphasize the report’s findings that the bill would reduce the federal deficit by $197 billion over the next decade (although Republicans will likely be asked to explain why this estimate is any more reliable than the CBO’s predictionsregarding Obamacare).

However, the bill’s supporters are certain to downplay other aspects of the CBO report, particularly the section on “Future Unauthorized Residents.” The CBO predicts that some of the bill’s enforcement measures, such as the establishment of an employment-verification system, are likely to reduce the future flow of illegal immigrants, but they’re less optimistic about the bill’s ability to stop individuals from overstaying their temporary work visas, a problem that accounts for at least 40 percent of the existing population of illegal immigrants.

“Other aspects of the bill would probably increase the number of unauthorized residents — in particular, people overstaying their visas issued under the new programs for temporary workers,” CBO writes. And as a result, “the net annual flow of unauthorized residents would decrease by about 25 percent relative to what would occur under current law.”

Keep reading…

Sen. Chuck Schummer claims if the Gang of Eight bill passes,

“Illegal immigration will be a thing of the past,”

I am calling BS on the CBO report showing Gang of Eight Immigration Bill reduces budget deficit and here is why...

Check out the revenue sources for the 1st 10 yeas in this screen capture from the report. I have highlighted the off budget revenues ($214.3 billion) in red. These are mostly from social security payroll taxes. Keep in mind most of the newly legalized immigrants will be years from retirement and the few that are close won't have a lot of years paying in to raise their benefit level. As you might expect off budget the outlay in the 1st ten years is very small. Actually, it's only $2.6 billion (highlight in blue) of the expected $216.8 billion in expected new spending. If you don't consider off budget items such as social security, there is a $14.2 billion deficit. When you consider how optimistic and wrong most CBO projections are (take a look at their first Obamacare projection compared to the most recent), this deficit will balloon significantly in later years. The social security and medicare for these new immigrants will have to be paid eventually.

Good News: Another trillion dollar deficit predicted by CBO...

Just kidding. This is horrible news.

CBO predicts another trillion-plus deficit in FY 13, fifth year in a row over $1 trillion. ow.ly/fV7qj
— Byron York (@ByronYork) December 7, 2012

CBO: Real Unemployment is 15%

The  CBO report is here (pdf)

Via Fox Nation:

“The rate of unemployment in the United States has exceeded 8 percent since February 2009, making the past three years the longest stretch of high unemployment in this country since the Great Depression. Moreover, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projects that the unemployment rate will remain above 8 percent until 2014.

The official unemployment rate excludes those individuals who would like to work but have not searched for a job in the past four weeks as well as those who are working part-time but would prefer full-time work; if those people were counted among the unemployed, the unemployment rate in January 2012 would have been about 15 percent. Compounding the problem of high unemployment, the share of unemployed people looking for work for more than six months—referred to as the long-term unemployed—topped 40 percent in December 2009 for the first time since 1948, when such data began to be collected; it has remained above that level ever since.”

CBO: Stimulus cost more than advertized and created few jobs

The CBO now admits the Stimulus created as few as 700,000 jobs and will hurt the economy in the long run. Unfortunately, the money is already spent and our grandchildren will have to pay the bill.

(IBD) — After nearly all the stimulus money has been spent, the Congressional Budget Office now admits it cost more than advertised, did less to boost growth and will hurt the economy in the long run.

In its latest quarterly report on the economic effects of the Obama stimulus, the CBO sharply lowered its “worst case” scenario while trimming many of its upper-bound estimates for stimulus-fueled growth and employment.

The new report finds, for example, that the stimulus may have added as little as 0.7% to GDP growth in 2010 — when spending was at its peak — and created as few as 700,000 new jobs.
Both are down significantly from the CBO’s previous worst-case scenario.

Keep on reading…

CBO: Obamacare will cost $1.4 Trillion over next 10 years

The budget gimmick years, where there are taxes but not large costs, are dropping off the CBO analysis of Obamacare. Now, Americans ca see the true costs.

(American Spectator) — Repealing the new national health care law would result in gross savings of $1.4 trillion, a new report by the Congressional Budget Office finds.

During the health care debate, Democrats were hard pressed to keep up with President Obama’s promise that the legislation would cost “around $900 billion.” So they employed the gimmick of delaying the major spending provisions until 2014 to make the legislation appear cheaper within the CBO’s ten-year budget window, then 2010 through 2019. At the time, I calculated that this tactic deferred 98 percent of the spending to the last six years of that period. Well, now two years have passed, and the CBO’s budget window has shifted to 2012 through 2021 — and volià — the estimate that was $940 billion at the time of passage has suddenly gone up to $1.4 trillion. Read more here.

Confirmed: Obamacare will cost 800,000 jobs

CBO Director Doug Elmendorf admitted that Obamacare will cost 800,000 jobs.

Rep. [John] Campbell: Thank you, Mr. Chairman, we’ll — and Dr. Elmendorf — and we’ll continue this conversation right now. First on health care, before I get to — before I get to broader issues, you just mentioned that you believe — or that in your estimate, that the health care law would reduce the labor used in the economy by about 1/2 of 1 percent, given that, I believe you say, there’s 160 million full-time people working in ’20-’21.  That means that, in your estimation, the health care law would reduce employment by 800,000 in ’20-’21. Is that correct?

Director Elmendorf: Yes. The way I would put it is that we do estimate, as you said, that…employment will be about 160 million by the end of the decade.  Half a percent of that is 800,000.

CBO: New Record Deficit of $1.5 Trillion Predicted for This Year

A trillion here, a trillion there and pretty soon it will be real money.

Washington (AP) – New budget estimates released Wednesday predict the government’s deficit will hit almost $1.5 trillion this year, a new record.

The daunting numbers mean that the government will have to borrow 40 cents for every dollar it spends.

The new Congressional Budget Office estimates will add fuel to a raging debate over cutting spending and looming legislation that’s required to allow the government to borrow more money as the national debt nears the $14.3 trillion cap set by law. Republicans controlling the House say there’s no way they’ll raise the limit without significant cuts in spending, starting with a government funding bill that will advance next month.

If you spent 40% more than you made every year, how long would it be before you had to go bankrupt?

CBO Determines Obamacare Could Cost 700,000 Jobs

From CBO head Doug Elmendorf's presentation at the Schaeffer Center in California:



There are always unexpected consequences when the Federal Government tinkers with private markets. (emphasis mine)

From NewsBusters:

"Small"? Given that about 140 million people are working, "roughly half a percent" amounts to about 700,000 jobs (somewhat higher than the number Graham used in his column).

Gee Doug, if there's any evidence of the negatively dynamic effect of ObamaCare on the job market and the economy as a whole in the your "certified" March report (I know, that's not your word), I'm not seeing it. (My guess is that Congress specifically directed CBO to ignore dynamic effects, and the CBO's hands were tied.)

Read more here.

CBO Director Dr. Douglas Elmendorf destroys Obamacare claims

Keith Hennessey has a great post (with graphs) about the CBO Director's destruction of President Obama's claim to bend the health care cost curve down and reduce the deficit. The Graphs are from a presentation by CBO Director Dr. Douglas Elmendorf. In the above graph, the light blue line represents new spending on health care mandated by Obamacare.

Among the findings of the presentation are:

1. those with health insurance will have less money available for other needs;
2. it will be harder for the uninsured to buy insurance; and
3. government spending on Medicare and Medicaid will break federal and state budgets.

Read the entire post and see all the graphs here.

CBO Says Oops! Obamacare To Cost $115 billion More Than Thought

There goes the alleged reduction in national debt. Most Americans were too smart to believe that anyway.
ABC News reported:

The director of the Congressional Budget Office said Tuesday that the health care reform legislation would cost, over the next ten years, $115 billion more than previously thought, bringing the total cost to more than $1 trillion.

The revised figure is due to estimated costs to federal agencies to implement the new health care reform bill...

CBO had originally estimated that the health care reform bill would result in a net reduction in federal deficits of $143 billion from 2010-2019; this revised number would eliminate most of that savings.

Great News! Student Loan Takeover will Add $52 Billion to Deficit

According to the CBO, when all costs are considered, the government takeover of the student loan program will cost taxpayers $52 billion. Someone please explain to me why Democrats did this?

(CNSNews.com) -- The student loan overhaul legislation signed into law by President Barack Obama on Tuesday could add $52 billion to the deficit between 2010 and 2020 when the cost of the market risks and administrative expenses of the loans are taken into consideration, the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO) reported.

Obama's Plans to Bankrupt America by Overspending One Trillion a Year

How do you bankrupt the greatest country on Earth? It's easy. You put out a budget that runs the deficit up by $1 trillion a year for the next decade. I can't make this kind of stuff up. The budget deficit prediction is from the CBO.

President Barack Obama's budget will lead to deficits averaging nearly $1 trillion over the next decade, the CBO estimated Friday.

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) said President Barack Obama's budget would lead to annual deficits averaging nearly $1 trillion for the next decade.

Fail: CBO Stimulus Job Creation Report Rigged to Automatically Show Job Creation

Ever wonder how come the CBO report on Stimulus job creation could show 1.5 millions jobs created when 3 million more Americans are out of work? The report is based on a model that automatically predicts jobs for money spent.

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has produced a new report estimating that the $862 billion stimulus has thus far saved or created 1.5 million jobs. Yet the CBO’s calculations are not based on actually observing the economy’s recent performance. Rather...

CBO: Stimulus to Cost Extra $75 billion Because It Failed to Save Jobs

The nonpartisan CBO has a new report on the stimulus. The bill will cost an extra $75 billion in unemployment benefits, food assistance payments and other expenses stemming from lost jobs that the stimulus bill was meant to save. The total stimulus cost will now be $862 billion.

FOX News reported:

The nonpartisan CBO report, published Tuesday, attributes the $75 billion increase to added unemployment-related costs. More Americans are receiving unemployment benefits for lost jobs that the stimulus bill was meant to save, the report says.

About $21 billion of the added costs stem from higher unemployment compensation payments, while the remainder of the increase comes from food assistance payments and interest payments from states on taxable government bonds, the Washington Times reported.

Oh my! Final Senate Obamacare Bill to Cost $2.5 trillion in First Real 10 Years.

According to the latest CBO report on the final Senate bill, this legislation will cost taxpaying Americans $1 trillion in new taxes over ten years and another trillion will be siphoned out of Medicare. The deficit will still rise by an additional $200 billion.

From the Weekly Standard:

... Rather, the CBO says that $871 billion would be the costs from 2010 to 2019 for expansions in insurance coverage alone.But less than 2 percent of those "10-year costs" would kick in before the fifth year of that span. In its real first 10 years (2014 to 2023), the CBO says that the bill would cost $1.8 trillion -- for insurance coverage expansions alone. Other parts of the bill would cost approximately $700 billion more, bringing the bill's full 10-year tab to approximately $2.5 trillion -- according to the CBO...

CBO: 10 Million Could Lose Employer Coverage Under Senate Health Bill

President Obama promised you could keep your current coverage, if you liked it, under his health care reform. The CBO disagrees.

The Congressional Budget Office estimates that up to 10 million people could lose their employer-based insurance coverage under the Senate's health care reform bill....

But the estimate assumes many employers, particularly small businesses with low-wage workers, would opt to pay the fine and drop their insurance plans. The CBO estimated this would affect between 9 million and 10 million workers.

There is still a 'reality check' video (posted below), on the White House website, of Barack Obama and Linda Douglass of the White House Office of Health Reform debunking the myth that reform will force you out of your current insurance plan or force you to change doctors. There are two clips in this video of President Obama promising that won't happen. The CBO appears to think President Obama will be lying if he signs the Senate version of health care reform.