Trump's favor-ability rating are rising to near 50%. Let's compare 2020 to 2016.
Hillary Clinton November 2016
Donald Trump November 2016
Hillary Clinton had a 4 point favor-ability rating advantage and won the popular vote by about 2%, but got slaughtered in electoral votes. Then candidate Donald Trump favorable was a low 37.5%.
Let's check the current situation for Joe Biden.
As you can see, Joe Biden is 3 points ahead of Hillary. So, he looks good, right? Let's check President Trump.
President Trump is 6 points better than 2020 and the three most recent polls were all in the Upper 40's. I used favorable ratings to keep apples to apples comparisons. If I had used President Trump's Presidential Approval, his reelection chances would look even better.