Saturday, April 25, 2009

AP poll on "right track" excluded most Republicans

AP put out a poll that received a lot of play in the media for showing the number of people who think the country is on the right track rose significantly from 40% to 48%. The problem is the internal poll numbers show they have Republicans as 18% of the population. American Thinker has the details,
Just read an AP report: the percentage of Americans that think the country is on the right track rose to 48% in March as compared to 40% in February. In light of the unemployment rising, the debacle in foreign affairs etc, I found it unlikely. So I looked into the details of the poll.

73% of the Democrats polled thought we were on the right track
17% of Independents
10% of Republicans

That made it even more suspicious as to how those numbers could result in a 48% overall right track vote.

So digging deeper, it turns out

36% of those polled were Democrats
18% Republican
26% Independent
18% None claimed

In the 2008 election the spread between Democrats and Republicans was 6.5 percentage points not 18 and independents made up 22% of the vote not 26%.

It appears that there have been similar distortions in the various polls measuring Obama's approval ratings.


GeronL said...

Our media are nothing more than propagandists for the fascists

Steel Phoenix said...

It is hard to say what is going on here.

The polls have been really untrustworthy in recent years, deciding whether to skew for likely voters rather than total population, or vice-versa based on which result favors their agenda (this varies).

It is hard to find someone wanting to claim they are Republican lately. I certainly wouldn't. I imagine most of those Independents are right leaning.

The whole right track/wrong track is typically worded in a rather useless fashion, and doesn't necessarily reflect on politics as much as the appearance that the economic situation is improving.