Private insurance will decline and Medicaid will expand. Nice job democrats.
National Enrollment Estimate: Private Insurance, Medicaid and the Uninsured
The ACA offers subsidies in the private individual insurance market and offers states the choice to expand Medicaid coverage with federal support. As a result of varied Medicaid decisions and prior state market conditions, enrollment is expected to vary widely by state. States like California, New York and Pennsylvania are estimated to experience substantial increases in enrollment, while states like Texas, Ohio and Florida are likely to see a steady decline in individual and employer insurance enrollment leading to increase in the uninsured. We have included 10 state economic analyses in this report to provide additional insight into state insurance markets that are expected to experience significant levels of disruption.
Nationally, we estimate an initial decrease in the uninsured with greater use of the private health insurance subsidies, but over time health plan prices are likely to increase faster than the value of the insurance subsidy. As a result of the declining purchasing power of the insurance subsidy, the implementation of the qualified health plan requirements and the end of the reinsurance and risk corridor programs we estimate a significant reduction in the private insurance market in 2017 with steady declines continuing for the rest of the decade. The Medicaid population is estimated to grow substantially in 2015 as more individuals are enrolled in states who have chosen to expand the program. Medicaid enrollment is estimated to slow down to between 2% to 3% each year from 2016 to 2024.