We have Obama as ~80% likely to win Electoral College if popular vote is a tie. 98% if it's O+1. 30% if it's R+1.
— Nate Silver (@fivethirtyeight) November 4, 2012
Sunday, November 4, 2012
Amusing: Nate Silver starts back-peddling...
So, if Romney wins the national vote by +1% he has a 70% chance of winning? Of the last six polls, the average toter turnout model is Democrats +6 points. 2008 was Democrat +7 points. Based on those skewed poll numbers the race is a tie. If Republicans turn out in larger numbers than 2008, and early voting indicates they are, Romney will win. If Republicans cut the Democrats voting edge in only half, Romney will win by about 3 points. It's time to throw in the towel Nate.
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