Tuesday, December 6, 2011

Loss Predicted for Obama by Chapman University Model

Chapman’s model works out to predict every presidential election winner but one, dating back to 1944. It doesn't matter who the GOP nominee is.
Chapman’s model, which takes into account party but not the candidates, is based on three variables:
  • Approval rating of the incumbent party’s sitting president on year prior to the election.
  • Percentage change in real GDP in the election year.
  • Percentage change in employment in the election year.
Chapman predicts 2.3 percent GDP growth next year and 1.1 percent job growth.
All that adds up to Obama losing by 8.1 percent.

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