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Gallop has found a 6% lead by Republicans among registered voters in a generic congressional ballot. Two days ago, Rasmussen found a 7% lead among likely voters for Republicans in a generic congressional ballot. Democratic analyst Nate Silver has concluded a 2.7% lead for Republicans yields a 50% chance Republicans will gain 50 seats and take control of the House.
Gallup's generic polling shows the number of voters saying that they would vote for Republicans rising three points from last week, while the number saying they will vote for Democrats dropped four points. The 49%-43% lead for the Republicans is the largest that the pollster has ever recorded for the party. Moreover, Democratic enthusiasm for voting this fall fell a point, while enthusiasm among Republicans stayed about fifteen points higher. This indicates an even wider lead for Republicans once Gallup imposes a likely voter screen this fall....