The National Association of Manufacturers has a new study out. The Waxman-Markey bill could cost as many as 2.4 million jobs by 2030.
This study analyzes the Waxman-Markey bill under low
and high cost cases with respect to a baseline that projects
the future in the absence of the bill.1,2 W/M sets targets that
would reduce GHG emissions to 17% below 2005 levels by
2020; 42% below 2005 levels by 2030; and 83% below
2005 levels by 2050 (Figure 1). The price of carbon permits
(what companies must pay to emit CO2) could reach
between $48 and $61 per metric ton of CO2 (MT) by 2020
and could increase to between $123/MT and $159/MT by
Impact on Jobs
The jobs impact of W/M is delayed by the free allocation of
permits and generous carbon offsets. By 2030, as emission
reduction targets tighten and other W/M provisions phase
out, U.S. jobs decline by 1.8 million under the low cost
case and by 2.4 million under the high cost case (Figure 2).
The primary cause of job losses is lower industrial output
due to higher energy prices, the high cost of complying
with required emissions cuts, and greater competition from
overseas manufacturers with lower energy costs.